• Ethereum lost over 20% of its value from the recent peak.
  • Downside movement seems more likely.

Ethereum, now the second largest coin with a market value of $13.4B is trading at $128.90 with a mild bearish bias and expanding volatility. The coin lost over 20% from the recent peak reached at $164.74 amid growing uncertainty ahead of Constantinople upgrade and general sell-off on the cryptocurrency market. Traders do have a reason to be nervous. There is less than a week until the event,  but only 15% of full nodes upgraded the software. 

Looking technically, ETH/USD is exposed to further losses as the way to the South looks like the path of least resistance at this stage. The first meaningful support below the current level is created by the lower border of the 1-hour Bollinger band at $125.70. Once it is broken, there is little to stop the price from going all the way down to $113.00 handle strengthened by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1-month), and 161.8% Fibonacci (1-week). If it is cleared, there is a good chance we will see ETH/USD at $100.00 sooner rather than later. 

On the upside, stiff resistance is created by a confluence of strong technical indicators, including the previous week’s low at $130.70, 38.2% Fibo retracement (1-month) and 23/6% Fibo retracement (1-day). 

Once it is out of the way, the recovery may be extended towards psychological 135.00 with 38/2% Fibo retracement (1-day) located on approach. It is followed by a stronger resistance area at $140.50-$140.80, created by SMA50 1-hour and SMA100 4-hour. It separates us from the ultimate bullish goal at $150.00.


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